The study carried out by Pollution Probe, in collaboration with Mobility Future Lab and Delphi, provides an excellent overview of the current state of the long-haul market and the challenges involved in decarbonizing it. We found relevant information confirming that the transition to alternatives to diesel trucks for long-haul transport remains a major challenge.
According to the study, long-haul trucks travel an average of between 650 and 1,100 km per day. This is an essential fact that highlights the limitations of today's zero-emission solutions. Let's take a closer look at what this study reveals.
TECHNOLOGIES ANALYZED
For this study, only zero-emission technologies were considered. Natural gas and hydrogen internal combustion engines were excluded, as they are not totally emission-neutral.
The analysis therefore focuses on two main categories:
- Battery-electric trucks (BEV) ;
- Hydrogen fuel cell trucks (FCEV).
ENERGY-EFFICIENT TECHNOLOGIES
One of the study's key figures concerns the energy efficiency of the various technologies.
- BEV: 65 to 85% energy efficiency (from charger to wheels);
- FCEV: 30 to 50% energy efficiency;
- Diesel: 40-50% energy efficiency.
Without even considering the energy required to produce electricity or hydrogen, it's clear that battery-electric trucks are the most efficient. What's more, with a lower energy cost, electricity optimizes every kWh used.
AVAILABLE AUTONOMY
The range of BEV trucks varies between 370 and 640 km depending on the model, with the exception of the Tesla Semi, which boasts an impressive 800 km range with a 1,000 kWh battery.
FCEVs, meanwhile, offer a range of 483 to 805 km, depending on the models available. This covers some needs, but is still a long way from the 1,600 km a diesel truck can cover without refuelling.
IMPACT OF VEHICLE WEIGHT
The study shows that the additional weight of zero-emission trucks is a decisive factor:
- FCEV: on average 3,520 kg more than a diesel truck;
- BEV: between 3,150 and 6,350 kg more weight for a range of 400 to 600 km.
However, experts estimate that BEVs could reduce their weight by 1,939 kg by 2050 thanks to technological advances.
TOTAL ACQUISITION COST
The total cost of ownership (TCO) of zero-emission vehicles is a key factor in their adoption.
- BEV: Their initial cost is higher than that of diesel trucks, but savings on fuel and preventive maintenance, as well as longer battery life, make up for this in the long term. It's important to note that while fault diagnosis can be more complex, preventive maintenance plans are generally simplified, thanks in particular to a reduced number of moving parts and less mechanical wear.
- FCEV: At present, their cost is much higher, and the price of hydrogen remains a major obstacle. According to the study, for the TCO of FCEVs to be competitive, the price of hydrogen would have to drop to between $4 and $8/kg over the next ten years. A considerable challenge, as long as demand remains low.
Of course, these calculations are strictly financial. However, other factors come into play:
- Reduced GHG emissions ;
- Increased driver comfort;
- Simplification of preventive maintenance plans;
- Technological innovation.
These elements are difficult to quantify, but offer a strategic return on investment.
IN BRIEF: A CHALLENGE WE CAN MEET TOGETHER
The challenges are many, but far from insurmountable. We are moving towards a multi-energy world, and the transition of freight transport will undergo a veritable revolution over the next 15 to 20 years.
It's not just a question of inserting a circle into a square and replacing a diesel engine with a battery or hydrogen fuel cell. It's a whole business model that needs to be rethought in the light of the new constraints and opportunities brought about by this transition.
We're still at the heart of what some call the “Messy Middle”, that phase when no technology perfectly meets the need. Yet if we don't test, share and innovate, we'll be stuck in this transition for too long, putting the whole industry at risk.
Subsidy programs and government involvement are therefore crucial to support companies ready to adopt these new technologies. The challenge is to mitigate the financial losses of early adopters in order to accelerate infrastructure development and the viability of solutions.
Only a collaborative approach will enable us to make these solutions a sustainable and efficient reality in an ever-changing world.
